The latest ECU Center for Survey Research poll of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, conducted September 30 through October 3, shows Democratic nominee Roy Cooper leading Republican nominee Michael Whatley 50% to 43%. Only 6% of likely voters remain undecided, and 2% support a minor-party or write-in candidate. The seven-point margin is unchanged from last month’s report, but the share of undecided voters has dropped from 14% to 6%. In a forced-choice scenario that removes “undecided” as an option, Cooper’s lead remains at seven percentage points, with 53% supporting Cooper and 46% supporting Whatley. The poll has a credibility interval of +/- 4 percentage points, similar to a traditional margin of error.
The stability of Cooper’s lead, even as the number of undecided voters has fallen by more than half, suggests that the race has settled into a consistent pattern with less than a month until Election Day. As voters make up their minds, Whatley has not been able to close the gap. The poll indicates that the economy and cost of living are the most important issues for a majority of likely voters (55%). Among these voters, Cooper expands his lead to 60% versus 31%, a 29-point advantage. This suggests that voters trust Cooper more to handle the economy, a critical issue in this election cycle.
Cooper’s advantage is also driven by a 16-point lead among independents (52% to 36% with about 7% undecided) and a net-positive favorability rating (48% favorable to 43% unfavorable). Whatley’s ratings are net-negative (31% favorable to 43% unfavorable), which may hinder his ability to win over undecided voters. The ECU Center for Survey Research, which directed this poll, is a member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative (TI). For additional information about the ECU Poll and its methodology, please refer to the documentation provided in the TI report. To view the full announcement, including downloadable images, bios, and more, click here.
The implications of this poll are significant for both parties. For Democrats, Cooper’s consistent lead and strong performance on the economy suggest that they can hold this Senate seat, which is crucial for maintaining or expanding their majority. For Republicans, Whatley’s negative favorability and deficit among independents indicate that he faces an uphill battle to change the dynamics of the race. With only 6% undecided, there are few voters left to persuade, meaning the race is largely solidified. The poll was distributed by Reportable, Inc.
