Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) following the company's second-quarter 2026 results, which showcased a visible operating inflection despite headwinds from India's OMC tender timing. Revenue increased 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, slightly below consensus estimates, but the underlying performance was stronger than the top-line variance suggests. Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a $3.4 million loss, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a significant turnaround from negative $5.8 million in the prior year. These gains were driven by quarterly 45Z credit recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics, which more than offset the softer India revenue.
The dairy RNG segment continues to be the clearest growth driver, with sales volume increasing 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu. Segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million, reflecting the impact of seven approved LCFS pathways with an average negative carbon intensity of 380, which are enhancing credit economics. Six additional pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production and profitability. These developments are critical as the company seeks to expand its RNG footprint and capitalize on growing environmental credit markets.
At the Keyes facility, the earnings bridge continues to advance. The mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system is targeted for operation by year-end 2026, and management estimates approximately $32 million in annual value from reduced natural gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operational improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, but the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the thesis. With only $1.0 million in unrestricted cash and $415.9 million in total debt, refinancing progress is essential to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.
The market will be watching closely as Aemetis continues to execute on its operational goals while addressing its capital structure. The positive momentum in RNG and ethanol operations provides a foundation, but the company must navigate its debt obligations and secure adequate liquidity to fully realize its potential. As Stonegate Capital Partners notes, the underlying quarterly results were better than the revenue variance indicated, with both California businesses delivering higher volumes, stronger gross profit, and increased environmental-credit contribution. The coming quarters will be pivotal in determining whether Aemetis can sustain this trajectory and overcome its financial hurdles.
