Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported its first quarterly net income of $5.2 million for the third quarter of 2026, a milestone that underscores the earnings potential of its existing renewable natural gas (RNG) and ethanol assets. The results, highlighted in an updated coverage note by Stonegate Capital Partners, show revenue rising 49% year-over-year to $88.2 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $24.8 million. While an $11.0 million first-half 45Z tax credit catch-up amplified profits, the company also demonstrated improved recurring economics, with RNG 45Z revenue of $9.1 million for the quarter after the federal model update lifted the credit to approximately $62 per MMBtu.
The significance of the quarter lies in what it reveals about Aemetis’s ability to generate cash from assets already in service. RNG volumes grew 39% year-over-year, two digesters entered service in October, and six additional Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) pathways are nearing approval. These gains came without the full long-term buildout, suggesting that further growth can be achieved through operational efficiencies and incremental investments. For investors, the key question is how much of this improved profitability will flow to shareholders after financing costs and reinvestment.
Near-term margin levers at the company’s Keyes ethanol plant could extend the positive momentum. The mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) system has all key equipment on site, with construction targeted for completion around March 2027. Management maintains an approximately $32 million annual cash-flow opportunity from natural gas savings, most of which is expected in the second half of 2027. Additionally, a third corn-oil unit scheduled for December is expected to roughly double corn-oil output compared with the first quarter of 2026, positioning the company to benefit from stronger prices.
Several dated catalysts over the next 12 months could further support the investment case. RNG fueling station deliveries to truck fleets are set to begin in November, California’s year-round E15 implementation is slated for January 1, 2027, and EU export approvals for India biodiesel are expected in the fourth quarter. The company also has 13 cleanup and compression units in hand for the next 13 digesters, indicating a pipeline for continued RNG expansion. Higher 45Z and LCFS economics, together with refinancing and a potential minority India IPO, could drive meaningful margin expansion, cash-flow improvement, and valuation upside.
For a fuller picture of the coverage update, including downloadable images and additional details, interested parties can click here. The announcement was distributed by Reportable, Inc.
